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SoftRisk
Collective risk model · ruin theory · IBNR · credibility

Derailment is ruin. We price it like one.

Every project carries a technical-debt reserve: defect frequency × severity is the aggregate loss, engineering capacity is the premium inflow, and the probability the project derails is a classical ruin calculation — not a vibe. Signals stream through goldrush CEP queries and land in the rating as underwriting debits.

Rating
E
ψ(u) = 100.0%
Underwriting inputs
Credibility Z0.33
Blended λ14.77/sprint
E[S] load109.3h
Safety loading c − λμ-13.3h
Underwriting decision
u + c·t − S(t)
Certain ruin trajectory — re-plan or cancel.
On-chain anchor — tamper-proof rating
sha256(rating_doc) → Soroban
Commit this underwriting decision to the Commitment oracle — band, ψ, debits, timestamp. Third parties verify keylessly.
Ruin ψ(u)
100.0%
VaR 95%
171.0h
TVaR 95%
187.0h
Signal debits
6
Surplus path U(t) — Monte Carlo (one draw)
ruin when ≤ 0
Signal debits (goldrush CEP)
abandonment ×1.0 0
Alert storms ×1.4 8
Bus factor ×1.0 0
Churn hotspots ×1.35 9
CI blowouts ×1.13 5
drift_alerts ×1.0 0
flame_drift ×1.13 5
Revert storms ×1.25 11
Test-ratio collapse ×1.3 13
Engineering event stream
GreEx.make → :glc.handle

Fire real events into the compiled goldrush queries. Watch the counters increment and the debits (and the band) move on the next 3-second tick.

or inject individual events
no events yet — fire one above
IBNR — bugs shipped, not yet found
chain ladder
Reported
18
Ultimate
19.4
IBNR (latent)
1.4
or pull real issues:

Rows are defect cohorts by sprint; the last diagonal is what you've seen so far. The ladder projects the unobserved tail — the bugs already in production that nobody has hit yet.

Underwritten portfolio — watched repos
No repos watched. Add a local path or a GitHub slug above — the underwriter will scan history + CI and rate it.
The actuarial dictionary
Frequency × severity
Defect discovery rate λ times fix-cost E[X]. E[S] per sprint is the expected derailment load.
Ruin theory
Surplus U(t) = u + ct − S(t). Derailment = ruin. ψ(u) comes from Lundberg, not gut feel.
IBNR
Incurred-but-not-reported: latent shipped bugs. Chain-ladder triangles price the invisible backlog.
Credibility
Bühlmann Z = n/(n+k): new repos lean on industry priors; mature repos earn their own rate.
Gompertz hazard
Tech debt compounds like mortality: μ(x) = A·e^(Bx). P(survive N sprints) is a life-table read.
Goldrush CEP
Compiled O(1) queries over commit/CI/alert events. Signals land as underwriting debits, live.
SoftRisk · collective risk model over goldrush CEP · Actuary.Finance · ruin is a number, not a mood